The low made on 08/02/10 was 15651 and then rallied to 18047 on 07/04/10.

A correction was seen down to 15960 on 25/05/2010.

The correction tested 78.6% and 88.6% retracement of this rise from 15651 to 18047.

The retracement levels are show at 16134 and 15907 respectively.

The low registered then was 15960 which was in the zone of 16130-15907.

A rally was seen subsequently to test 1.618 relation of the rise fro 15651 to 18047 projected up from 15907 for 20074.

The SENSEX exceeded that and attained a high of 21108.

Under this concept and pattern

similar structure can be seen in a miniature form.

The rise from 17295 to 18690 was corrected to 17469.

The 78.6% and 88.6% retracement of the rise from 17295 to 18690 were placed at 17579 and 17443.

The zone was 17579-17443. the low made on Friday was 17469 and closed at 17700.

A hammer/ harami black candlestick pattern has been formed.

If the support of 17295 is not violated in days to come and sustains above friday's high of 17812 then we have a scope for near term rally.

If that comes into existence the replica of earlier pattern that was highlighted could come into existence in a miniature form.

If that happens then 1.618 of the rise from 17295 to 18690 projected up from 17469 will provide us upside target value of 19824. The same has been highlighted in the chart with red color.

The base and premise which is taken on this occasion is that if 17295 is not violated then we have a scope of a rise from here on.

If 17295 is violated on sustained basis then the above argument placed forward will not be applicable.

What is the difference on earlier occasion and now

1) The current is the miniature version

2) On the earlier occasion, we had support from 200 day averages (though violated but came back above it as the slopes were positive.)

3) On this occasion, we are trading well below the 200 day average and slope of 200 EMA and SMA diverging. EMA moving below SMA. EMA slope turn negative.

4) Therefore, even if upside is seen it may test 200 day average but may not test the projection level of 19824.