The chart shows the flat pattern formation.

The pullback for Wave B had hit 78.6% retracement.

The time taken by Wave B is more that Wave A.

The addition of time of Wave A and Wave B is 39 trading days

Time of Wave A-B/2 which gives us 19 trading days.

If the same is projected in the terms of time then we arrive at a date of 03/02/11.

The 1.618 time relation of Wave A and Wave B also is at 03/2/11.

On the immediate front,

61.8% and 1 time price relations provides the level of 19336 and 18513

In term time, 38.2%, 50%, and 61.8% provides dates of 10/01/11, 12/01/11 and 14/01/11

if any time Wave c proves to be a failure then it could end at either of these dates either by hitting the level of 19336 or 18513 or move into the range 19336-18513 at or around the date of 10/1/11, 12/01/11 and 14/01/11.

Another important observation is to be seen that each body for last 5 trading day is larger.

Friday being the largest body.

Since, next week provides some important time relation dates, Wave C is unfolding

and internals of the same would start to emerge.

It is possible that Wave 1 of Wave C could end next week for a pull back.

The next important time projection will be at 21/01/11 which is 1 time relation of Wave B

it is possible that Wave 1 of Wave C could end next week for a pull back till 21/01/11

The 1.618 time and 2.618 time relation is placed at 03/02/11 and 23/02/11.

The 1.618 price relation is at 17180 and 2.618 relation 15025.

The validity of the argument will be till 20664 is not crossed.

Wave C of the flat pattern since the peak of 21108 end at 18513 by 03/02/11 which 1 time relation for Wave C considering Wave B only did 78.6%.

Wave C of flat whenever it end at 03/02/11 or 23/02/11 at 18513, 17180 or 15025 will end the first leg of Wave Y. The same flat pattern would be called Wave w of Wave Y

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weekly update - 10/02/11 market out loook

Bear haunts again!

By Hitendra Vasudeo

Last week, the Sensex opened at 20621.61 attained a high at 20664.80 and fell to a low of 19629.81 and finally closed the week at 19691.81 with a net fall of 817 point on a week-to-week basis. Our expectation last week was that the higher range of 20659-21108-21206 will be tested but the Sensex faltered at 20659 by making a high of 20664 and slipped on a sustained basis last week.

The Sensex had formed a big Enguling Bear candlestick pattern after testing the 78.6% retracement of the fall from 21108 to 18954. A likely situation of an important lower top against the peak of 21108 and the same will get confirmed if the support of 18954 is violated on a weekly closing basis. If that happens, then expect the damaging Wave c of Wave Y to show its effect. Signs of the damaging fall have already been witnessed last week but we need to wait for the confirmation of the same. But the Engulfing Bear candlestick pattern at least indicates that no long position henceforth should be taken and the priority is to exit long positions on a rise to weekly resistance levels. Since an Engulfing Bear candlestick pattern is there on the weekly chart, there could be a tendency for a minor pullback to get inside the weekly negative candle to 50% of the body at least. The weekly centre point could be tested, which will be at 19995.

Weekly resistance will be at 19995-20361-20665. Only an equally sharp breakout and close above 20665 can save the Sensex from testing 18954. A trend line support is visible taken from 15960 and 18954. The low of last week is on the same trend line. If the trend line manages to offer support, then resistance of 19995-20361 could be tested. Another point which favours the small minor intra-week pullback before a further slide is the Sentiment Index. In our daily report, we generate Daily Sentiment Index for the market. The Sentiment Index has hit 0.99% which is the lowest on the daily chart since last one month. Last time, we had a Sentiment Index 0.66% was in the first week of December 2010 from where the Sensex took off from 19074 to 20664. Allowing the benefit of doubt for the same conceptual logic, we could find a short-lived recovery to 19995-20361 before surrendering the gains. Alternatively, a gap down fall to violate 18954 and close below it could be seen. Broadly, till 20665 is not crossed, the Sensex has the strong possibility to test 18954 and violate the same to meet the 200 day average, which is at 18636. The 50-day average has been violated strongly on Friday with a deeper negative candle. The 50-day average is now placed at 20045, which coincides with the weekly resistance range of 19995-20361. Expect a minor rise to the resistance on the back of the trend line support and the Sentiment Index at lowest as 0.99%. Exactly, on 3 & 4 January 2011, the Sentiment Index was 64% which indicated higher spirit on Sentiment Index, which is generally short-lived and offers a good opportunity for profit-booking and to exit long position.

On the daily chart, the projection of Wave (c) of Wave Y can be at least 19336 if it is a failure, if it shows a normal relation then it can test 18513 and if it shows elongated flat, then it can extend down to 17180.

The Broad Market

BSE Small Cap index must cross 10,000 and not fall below 8617. BSE Mid Cap index must cross 7981 and not violate 7176.

Breakout and close above the resistance of 10,000 for BSE Small Cap and 7981 for BSE Small Cap can save the slide. Acceleration on downside can be seen below the support of 8617 and 7981 respectively for BSE Small Cap and BSE Mid Cap respectively.

Wave Tree:

Wave Tree					Month	Year	Sensex	Month	Year	Sensex	Remark
Wave I	-	-	-	-	Dec	1979	113	Feb	1986	656	-
Wave II	-	-	-	-	Feb	1986	656	March	1998	390	-
Wave III	-	-	-	-	March	1998	390	Jan	2008	21206	-
Wave IV	-	-	-	-	Jan	2008	21206	31-Dec	2010	20552	In progress
Wave IV	Wave W	-	-	-	Jan	2008	21206	March	2009	8047	-
Wave IV	Wave X	-	-	-	March	2009	8047	11-Nov	2010	21108	-
Wave IV	Wave X	A	-	-	March	2009	8047	Jan	2010	17790	-
Wave IV	Wave X	B	-	-	Jan	2010	17790	May	2010	15960	-
Wave IV	Wave X	C	-	-	May	2010	15960	11-Nov	2010	21108	-
Wave IV	Wave X	C	-	i	25-May	2010	15960	23-July	2010	18237	-
Wave IV	Wave X	C	-	ii	23-July	2010	18237	31-Aug	2010	17819	-
Wave IV	Wave X	C	-	iii	31-Aug	2010	17819	14-Oct	2010	20854	-
Wave IV	Wave X	C	-	iv	14-Oct	2010	20854	29-Oct	2010	19768	-
Wave IV	Wave X	C	-	v	29-Oct	2010	19768	11-Nov	2010	21108	-
Wave IV	Wave Y		-	-	11-Nov	2010	21108	07-Jan	2011	19691	In progress
Wave IV	Wave Y	(a)			11-Nov	2010	21108	26-Nov	2010	18954	-
Wave IV	Wave Y	(b)	a.		26-Nov	2010	18954	06-Dec	2010	20217	-
Wave IV	Wave Y	(b)	b.		06-Dec	2010	20217	12-Dec	2010	19074	-
Wave IV	Wave Y	(b)	c.		12-Dec	2010	19074	03-Jan	2011	20664	-
Wave IV	Wave Y	(c)	i		03-Jan	2011	20664	07-Jan	2011	19629	In progress

Alternatively

Wave IV	Wave X	C	1	-	May	2010	15960	11-Nov	2010	21108	-
Wave IV	Wave X	C	2	-	11-Nov	2010	21108	31-Dec	2010	20552	In progress
Wave IV	Wave X	C	2	a	11-Nov	2010	21108	26-Nov	2010	18954	-
Wave IV	Wave X	C	2	b	26-Nov	2010	18954	03-Jan	2011	20664	-
Wave IV	Wave X	C	2	c	03-Jan	2011	20664	07-Jan	2011	19629	In progress

Conclusion

Once again, the bear threat haunts the market. Let us see how the bulls can hold on to the support of 18954.

Strategy for the week

The sharp reversal leaves no choice but to exit long to resistances of 19995-20361-20665 as the opportunity arises. Traders can sell on rise to 19995-20361 with a stop loss of 20665 and sell further on fall below 18900 with the high of the week as the stop loss as the point of breakdown for targets of 18513-17180. Traders selling at higher range of 19955 or above could look for dip towards 19336-18954 to cover and then re-enter long on breakout and close above 20665. In that case, the correction that we experienced was just a part continuation pattern of the overall rising leg.

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Note:

The view are my view with observation on market. We may be mended some rules at some point of time or could even be a mix match of some concepts of pretcher school of thought or neo wave school of thought. The view may or may not suite other analyst thought process. the view are expressed from the market perspective angle and may not be of immediate help to traders. The objective is to provide perspective and provide information for trading which can be of high risk. Traders following the views are solely at their own risk and are not liable of any loss that could occur in case of changes in internal structural formation.